pac 12 ~ 2012 football predictions

projected PAC12 North wins-losses - regular season 1. Oregon 10 - 2 2. Washington State 7 - 5 3. Oregon State 7 - 5 4. California 7 - 5 5. Washington 5 - 7 6. Stanford 4 - 8 PAC12 South 1. USC 11 - 1 2. Utah 8 - 4 (or 9 - 3) 3. UCLA 7 - 5 4. Arizona 5 - 7 5. Arizona State 5 - 7 6. Colorado 5 - 7 North Notes: 1. Oregon Ducks why they will stomp: no matter what, the ducks still own the northern division. they really have no one to keep pace with them, even with a few slip ups. their running game is always stellar. this year it maybe a bit underrated since lamichael james left for the nfl, but be wary of de'anthony thomas. thomas ran roughshod over everyone for 10.8 yards per rush as a freshman! he'll probably top 1000 yards as a sophmore, but he's not even the featured back. kenjon barner has been a stud since he was a freshman, nearly topping 1000 yards last year as a junior backup. now, he gets the ball as a starter. watch out!! the ducks special teams is still a top notch unit. and that, along with turnover ratio, is always a deal breaker in the game of football. getting shots around the returns of james & cliff harris, de'anthony returned kicks for 27.3 yards per return & 2 TDs!! kicker rob beard is back from injuries for his senior year, but even if he is ineffective, maldonaldo will be fine & has lots of experience. maldonado was 77-78 on extra points (which the ducks will again be attempting a lot of). senior punter rice averaged 45.9 yards (41.4 net) - that was the best in college football last year. the defense has a lot of experience, particularly the front seven (though we'll have to see how deep they are beyond the starters). what will hold them back: in short, the achilles heel will be the fact that USC is now off probation by the NCAA. USC should account for one of the ducks losses & then are likely to win again in the pac-12 championship game. i can see a couple potential upsets by teams in the north division, such as the cal game, because the ducks are not as complete as before. the loss of darron thomas at QB can't be a good sign, the ducks have the most precarious QB situation in the north, though the team has answered in questionable situations before. the receivers are going to have to prove themselves as well as the defensive backs, who seem to be vulnerable against a few of the stronger passing teams. 2. Washington State who & why they will beat: people are gonna think i am high as hell to pick a second place finish for the cougars & maybe i will be proven wrong, but i believe this team is vastly underrated. they only finished 4-8 last year, but played a lot of teams close. they gave the ducks one of the bigger tests, coming two or three plays short of winning in eugene. they were the first team to outgain the ducks in eugene in 2 years & were only down 5 at halftime. they lost by 15 thanks to a blocked punt & kick return for a TD. this year, the cougs bring back senior QB jeff tuel after two crushing injuries last year. tuel was a starter as a sophmore hitting 60% of his passes for 2,700 yards & he has lots of mobility & scramblability. plus, sophmore halliday is a stellar backup. add in the fact that they got a short list heisman candidate at reciever in marquess wilson. so, with air raid coach mike leach taking over this year, it is almost irrelevant how the running backs will fare, but they did get a bit deeper in the run game. that should help put up even more passing yards & points accordingly. i don't expect wazzu to break their long losing streak against the ducks, since the game will be in seattle, just as much of a home game for the ducks as the cougs. but the cougars also don't have to play USC again this year. and after coming up 3 points shy at UCLA last year, i expect the cougs to trash them in pullman in november. WSU always plays well in corvallis, plus they should destroy the first 4 teams on the schedule. i am also predicting a win in pullman over the huskies in the apple cup for a fairly nice bowl selection. what will hold them back: the defense as a whole figures to give up about as many points last year. they will have to hope the added depth in the defensive backfield will at least slow some teams down to keep games close. expect a lot of shootouts, and as such crapshoots. 3. Oregon State what will be their success: they don’t have to play the trojans! those who know me know i am a beavers fan at heart. the main reason is that mike riley is the most balanced persona to do the job he does. the beavers are coming off a miserable year to say the least. riley doesn’t bat an eye. why? the beavers were actually projected to do well last year even though it had the makings of a bust the first year after losing one of the best running backs in team history (jaquizz rodgers) & a quandry quarterback system between a freshman & a disgruntled junior. riley packed the season in quickly following a loss to a fcs school on the first week of the season & gave the reigns to the freshman QB mannion in building for the future as rodgers brother, james was still banged up half the season – the best beaver reciever of all time – so he didn’t end up with a lot of touches. this year, james rodgers is gone but most of the offense returns in tact, with the experience to match it’s last year talent level. sophmore quarterbacks flourish under riley & mannion’s got the best trio of recievers in the north. they’re going to put up lots of points & this time the defense will not be walked all over, lots of depth & experienced playmakers in the front seven particularly that helps the secondary look even better. what will hold them back: the toughest part of the schedule is early in the season. they could very well be 1-3 when the cougars come to corvallis. and they don’t want to travel to BYU with a 1-4 record, so they are going to have battle early to keep confidence. but then they get 5 winnable games before the ducks come to the season closing civil war party. a bowl birth could be on the line with a win & the beavers have been itching for 4 years now. the running game has lots of question marks, but can only improve. special teams is even more worrisome, could be the achilles heel. 4. California what will be their success: cal always has a pro-style offense with pro-level talent. cal is always loaded at running back & this year is no different. sofele & bigelow will continue to get breaks into the open field. maynard, the senior QB, has as accurate arm as anyone, plus he can scramble. his best target is his brother, followed by some high potential prospects. what will hold them back: i never expect high potential prospeccts to amount to much more than a few highlight reels & lots of marks in the L column. cal has the kind of defense that will smother teams one week and then get absolutely torched the next. i don’t know what team they are supposed to be able to stop this year. they’ll get tested at home straight out of the gate, but get lots of practice in game two, preparing for what might not be too rough of a schedule. 5. Washington who & why they will beat: the pitch and catch game is on par with the other north teams. the huskies managed to stay the course, mimicking the RG3 show in the alamo bowl & that unit has solid battle experience now. they should get off to a 3-1 start to the season, but… what will hold them back: while the defense overall is a bit deeper, they don’t stack up well to the north offenses. points will flow like wine. the huskies d gave up an average of four TDs per game last year & should have no problem matching that feat again this year. while the air game is good, the huskies may have to use it every play because the running game figures to be next to non-existant. the special teams looks rather shaky & three of the first six games are against LSU, Oregon, and USC. they sure better win the other three because the final half season doesn’t get any better with 4 of 6 games on the road, not to mention that their home stadium is closed this year while they share with the seahawks. this team is so unreliable that, after that 3-1 start, it is possible they could lose every game the rest of the season. 6. Stanford what will be their success: stanford has one of the best running backs in the country in stepfan taylor. and on defense, they have a lot of experience & big time playmakers in the front seven, particularly at linebacker. this is going to have to carry the team. what will hold them back: this team is terribly overrated & it really has not that much to do with andrew luck now graduated. not that they should be expected to overcome losing one of the best QBs in the conference, but questions exist all over the offense, tons of young blood, other than the stud running back. so, now it is up to second year coach david shaw to show he can handle a team that is not handed to him on a golden platter. and i have a feeling that the north's pass happy teams can put up some big numbers that the cardinal offense won't be able to match. the defensive back field allowed a lot of yards & points last year & they aren't getting better this year. PAC12 South 1. USC why they will stomp: it’s hard not to believe a team is going to be great when all the experts are predicting them to finish the season ranked #1 in the nation. USC has the leading heisman trophy candidate in senior QB matt barkley & no shortage of stellar recievers to throw to. in fact, they likely have the best recievers in the country. senior running back mcneal gets his shot at full time duties after averaging 6.9 per carry last year. with a NFL type offensive line, the running game will adequately set up the dynamo passing game & the best offenses in the country will have a hard time matching USC’s point totals. the team is a bit young on the defensive front, but their linebackers & defensive backs seem destined for the NFL. it is a good bet that most of the points USC surrenders will be due to getting second & third units experience when games get out of reach. special teams looks good as well. i am not sure who will be returning kicks, but the sophmore place kicker doesn’t miss anything and the punter can put the ball just about anywhere on the field he is asked to. and looking at the schedule, 9 of 12 games in the states of california & arizona, with two others in washington & utah. this will help them stay well rested. now that the sanctions are lifted, USC is eligible for the post season & has something meaningful to play for, pity anyone who is on their schedule. what will hold them back: it’s doubtful that even a few injuries will affect them much, but maybe late night partying & acts of god will intervene. and maybe their idiot coach’s facial expression will contort the play calling somehow. 2. Utah what will be their success: the utes have always been a proud team that surprises everyone. they really should have been in the pac-12 championship game last year (unlike the bruins, the utes actually finished with a respectable 8-5 record). now with a year experience in the conference they can only get better. quarterback play was unexceptional last year, but they return both starting QBs wynn & hays, plus bring in two hyped freshman wilson & hansen that should make them deep. besides, the utes have a rather solid receiving group and a running back who set the school rushing record last year coming back for his senior year. yards, points, time of possession should help this team survive even some of their tougher tests. special teams is always one of the stronger points & with punter sellwood averaging near 40 yard net per punt, this should take some load off the defense. what will hold them back: while the defensive front is solid, the linebackers will have to continue to prove themselves & the very young secondary is a concern. 3. UCLA what will be their success: it helps that UCLA's harder games are at home. jonathan franklin is one of the better running backs in the pac-12 & the defense actually seems quite good, should probably stop most offenses they encounter. what will hold them back: UCLA is gonna have to rely on franklin a lot since they don’t seem particularly deep at any other offensive position. they had a hideous special teams unit last year, though punter locke can sub as a place kicker & make teams start deep. otherwise, a team that wasn’t that good last year (their appearance in the pac-12 championship game at 6-6 was the ridicule of the nation) comes in with lots of young blood & a new coach, who figure to have a lot of growing pains. hopefully, a good running back & decent defense can carry them above some other more questionable teams in the south. 4. Arizona what will be their success: offensive growing pains will be lessened by the fact that the wildcats have an experienced & big offensive line. the wildcats typically have a good secondary and incoming coach richrod is good with special teams. what will hold them back: with the exception of foles the last two years, the wilcats rarely have worthy quarterbacks. they have senior matt scott running the offense this year, who has hardly played his entire career & only has one proven weapon to throw to. plus, the running back situation seems precarious. the run game might produce a lot of numbers, but it will likely be because it gets used a hell of a lot. this team is going to live & die with its high profile newly hired coach. his track record is a mixed bag. he was an A+ at WV, but a D- at Michigan. let’s see what happes in the desert. 5. Arizona State what will be their success: the sun devils have a deep running back situation. cameron marshall topped 1000 yards last year as a junior. sophmore lewis is now a year recovered from having been shot after his freshman year, when he carried for a 5.9 avg. they also have a hyped junior college transfer in marion grice. if nothing else, this team will run the ball up & down the field all year long. they also have a flashy reciever, who scored TDs last year as reciever, kick returner, punt returner & passer. the defense will be able to hold its own with the rest of the pac-12, especially with decent special teams play. what will hold them back: another team with a first year coach makes them very hard to judge. and the schedule just looks way too brutal to really expect much of anything. i picked them to win 5 games, which might be setting the bar too high. starting a freshman at quarterback usually spells a rebuilding team. plus, they are losing 3 starting recievers. 6. Colorado what will be their success: the buffaloes can go nowhere but up. very hyped sophmore quarterback connor wood has just transferred from texas. colorado did win the last game of last season & have three winnable games to start with, which could give them an unprecedented four game winning streak, but after that… what will hold them back: the hodgepodge group on defense that got shredded last year to the tune of 36 points per game returns for likely more of the same. the running game has to start from scratch with the loss of rodney stewart & the recievers are very inexperienced with a bunch of freshman starting. i think this team will learn a lot & gel in time. this year though, they will do as expected. this season should end week 4 at pullman where the buffaloes have never roamed.